Updates after March FOMC meeting

...聯儲局決定再縮減買債100億美元，每月買債規模縮減至550億美元；其次，聯儲局放棄以失業率6.5%作為加息門檻指引，改為參考一系列數據，需要有「更大範圍的訊息」，包括就業、通脹及金融市況；第三，大部分委員預期在2015年首次加息，2016年底將加息至2厘。耶倫是改變了加息門檻，但這些新指引似有還無。相反，耶倫有兩點叫市場意外：一是加息時間表；二是加息可能很快，這才是債市最致命一擊...
...2015年中加息，本來就是聯儲局內鷹派所預期，甚至是市場大部分人士所預期。然而，耶倫在記者會講足一個鐘，最響亮的三隻字就是「六個月」，所有期望聯儲局暫停放水或者隨時有需要暫停退市的人，都吃了一記悶棍。以「新債王」Jeffrey Gundlach為例，他一直預計全球增長放緩將令美國放慢收水，如今耶倫是要大家不要存太大希望。SJL Research認為，耶倫在加息時間上走漏風聲，情況有如去年5月貝南奇張揚縮減買債的情況一樣；不過，貝南奇張揚退市後，及後的步伐其實與言論一致，而且近期局內鷹派抬頭，正反映聯儲局愈來愈相信就業市場有機會復蘇...2014年3月21日 習廣思

...恒指今年每季陰陽燭出現黃昏之星，是1997年以來第四次【圖】，過去三次分別大跌61％、54.7％及66.6％，如重演上述三次跌幅，恒指後市可跌至9403點、10922點或8055點，而三者平均數為9459點。美股牛市如運行至第六年大跌，道指Ⅱ浪可見8857點，即由現水平跌逾8000點。

The Is The One Financial Product Now Targeted By The HFT Swarm

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-11/one-financial-product-now-targeted-hft-swarm

...In order to determine if there is indeed truth behind the speculation that growth may have topped out, we decided to break down Virtu's 2013 net trading income by product line. We were not surprised to find that of the $45 million in total growth, the largest income category, US stocks growth was a tiny 5% of all, rising by $2.3 million in 2013, half the $4.5 million growth a year earlier. In fact, between EMEA, APAC and US Equities, there was very limited growth in 2013, while commodities posted an outright trading income decline. So indeed, it appears to be the case that growth in conventional products has indeed plateaued, as more and more HFT competitors rush in.

And yet, one product stood out. It is highlighted on the chart below: FX.

Markets Topping Out as Expected

Should closely follow the two leading indicators DAX and HYG/TLT.

Copper Collapses Most Since Dec 2011 On China Credit Fears

We noted last night that Iron Ore futures prices were in free-fall as the vicious circle of China's commodity-collateral-backed shadow banking system unwind hits home amid fears of contagion from the Chaori Solar default. The first domestic Chinese corporate bond default has retail investors running scared as surprise spreads that the local government did not come to the rescue. The deleveraging is now spreading to copper prices (remember the massive cash-for-copper schemes of last year) as borrowers are forced to sell to meet cash calls which in turn drops copper prices, reducing collateral values and tightening credit conditions even more. This is the biggest copper price drop since Dec 2011...

As Goldman further explains, the importance of CCFD is "not trivial" - that is an understatement: with the implicit near-infinite rehypothecation in which the number of "circuits" in the deal is only a factor of "the amount of time it takes to clear the paperwork", there may be hundreds of billions, if not more, in leverage resulting from this shadow transaction that has been used in China for years. Now, that loop is about to end. The reality is nobody can predict what the impact will be, but whatever it is - i) it will extract tremendous leverage from the system and ii) it will have adverse impacts on both China's ability to absorb inflation and grow its economy.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-07/copper-collapses-most-dec-2011-china-credit-fears

A Major Crash Is Coming?

Just finished a PPT doc on this topic but still finding the way to post it.

The take is the chance to see one coming is pretty high. A 15%-20% correction on global indexes is expected in March/April and 40%+ (from top to bottom) correction for the year of Horse 2014.

A Solar Cycle site

Just come across a very interesting site www.solarcycles.net. Also a working paper by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta suggested that people affected by geomagnetic storms may be more inclined to sell stocks on stormy days because they incorrectly attribute their bad mood to negative economic prospects rather than bad environmental conditions.
Must Read.

From Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.

*  Abnormal Returns continues to do a great job of curating the financial web and finding valuable nuggets.

*  Bella from SMB touches on a topic near and dear to my heart:  using data to improve the decision making of discretionary traders. 

*  Some good quant work on Rob Hanna's Quantifiable Edges site, including a recent look at stretched volatility readings.

*  A wealth of information on Rennie Yang's Market Tells service; another site I like for unique market analytics is Decision Point, which has recently merged with the Stock Charts service.

*  Charles Kirk on the value of wiping the slate clean and when it makes sense to read less.